modelScenario_4
4th Scenario
Information
This is a further modification of Jay Forrester's WORLD2 model. The death rate is reduced in 1970 to better account for the recent advances in medicine.
References:
- Cellier, F.E. (1991), Continuous System Modeling, Springer-Verlag, New York, ISBN: 0-387-97502-0, 755p.
- Forrester, J.W. (1971), World Dynamics, Pegasus Communications, 160p.
Simulate the model across 100 years, and plot the simulated and the measured world populations together on a single graph against the calendar years:
Parameters
| Type | Name | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real | Population_0 | 1.65e9 | World population in 1900 |
| Real | Pollution_0 | 2.0e8 | Pollution in 1900 |
| Real | Nat_Resources_0 | 9.0e11 | Unrecoverable natural resources in 1900 |
| Real | Cap_Invest_0 | 4.0e8 | Capital investment in 1900 |
| Real | CIAF_0 | 0.2 | Proportion of capital investment in agriculture in 1900 |
| Real | BRN | 0.04 | Normal birth rate |
| Real | CIAFN | 0.3 | CIAF normalization |
| Real | CIAFT | 15.0 | CIAF time constant |
| Real | CIDN | 0.025 | Normal capital discard |
| Real | CIGN | 0.05 | Normal capital generation |
| Real | ECIRN | 1.0 | Capital normalization |
| Real | FC | 1.0 | Food coefficient |
| Real | FN | 1.0 | Food normalization |
| Real | Land_Area | 1.35e8 | Area of arable land |
| Real | NRI | 9.0e11 | Initial natural resources |
| Real | POLS | 3.5999e9 | Standard pollution |
| Real | Pop_dens_norm | 26.5 | Normal population density |
| Real | QLS | 1.0 | Standard quality of life |
Components
| Type | Name | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real | Pop | World population | |
| Real | Pol | Pollution | |
| Real | Pol_rat | Pollution ratio | |
| Real | Cap_inv | Capital investment | |
| Real | Qual_life | Quality of life | |
| Real | Nat_res | Natural unrecoverable resources | |
| Real | NRUN | Normal resource utilization | |
| Real | POLN | Normal pollution | |
| Real | DRN | Normal death rate | |
| Real | Pop_meas | ||
| Sources.Source | Source1 | ||
| Rates.Rate_1 | Birth_Rate | ||
| Levels.Level | Population | ||
| Rates.Rate_1 | Death_Rate | ||
| Sources.Sink | Sink1 | ||
| Sources.Source | Source2 | ||
| Rates.Rate_1 | Generation | ||
| Levels.Level | Natural_Resources | ||
| Rates.Rate_1 | Depletion | ||
| Sources.Sink | Sink2 | ||
| Auxiliary.Const | Gen_Const | ||
| Functions.Tabular | BRMM | ||
| Functions.Tabular | DRMM | ||
| Auxiliary.Gain | BR_norm | ||
| Auxiliary.Prod_5 | Prod_5_1 | ||
| Auxiliary.Prod_5 | Prod_5_2 | ||
| Functions.Tabular | BRFM | ||
| Functions.Tabular | BRPM | ||
| Functions.Tabular | BRCM | ||
| Functions.Tabular | DRCM | ||
| Functions.Tabular | DRPM | ||
| Functions.Tabular | DRFM | ||
| Auxiliary.Gain | Crowd_Rat | ||
| Auxiliary.Prod_2 | Prod_2_1 | ||
| Functions.Tabular | NRMM | ||
| Sources.Source | Source3 | ||
| Rates.Rate_1 | CI_Generation | ||
| Levels.Level | Capital_Investment | ||
| Rates.Rate_1 | CI_Discard | ||
| Sources.Sink | Sink3 | ||
| Auxiliary.Gain | CIG_norm | ||
| Auxiliary.Prod_2 | Prod_2_2 | ||
| Auxiliary.Gain | CID_norm | ||
| Functions.Tabular | CIM | ||
| Auxiliary.Gain | MSL | ||
| Auxiliary.Gain | NRFR | ||
| Auxiliary.Gain | ECIR | ||
| Auxiliary.Prod_3 | Prod_3_1 | ||
| Functions.Tabular | NREM | ||
| Modelica.Blocks.Math.Division | CIR | ||
| Sources.Source | Source4 | ||
| Rates.Rate_1 | P_Generation | ||
| Levels.Level | Pollution | ||
| Rates.Rate_1 | P_Absorption | ||
| Sources.Sink | Sink4 | ||
| Functions.Linear | NotCIAF | ||
| Auxiliary.Gain | Pol_Ratio | ||
| Functions.Tabular | FCM | ||
| Auxiliary.Prod_3 | Prod_3_2 | ||
| Auxiliary.Gain | Food_Ratio | ||
| Sources.Source | Source5 | ||
| Rates.Rate_1 | CIAFG | ||
| Levels.Level | CIAF | ||
| Rates.Rate_1 | CIAFD | ||
| Sources.Sink | Sink5 | ||
| Auxiliary.Gain | CIAF_D | ||
| Auxiliary.Gain | CIAF_G | ||
| Auxiliary.Prod_2 | Prod_2_3 | ||
| Modelica.Blocks.Math.Division | P_Abs | ||
| Auxiliary.Prod_2 | Prod_2_4 | ||
| Functions.Tabular | POLCM | ||
| Functions.Tabular | POLAT | ||
| Functions.Tabular | CFIFR | ||
| Functions.Tabular | FPM | ||
| Auxiliary.Prod_2 | Prod_2_5 | ||
| Auxiliary.Gain | CIRA | ||
| Functions.Tabular | FPCI | ||
| Functions.Tabular | CIQR | ||
| Modelica.Blocks.Math.Division | QLMF | ||
| Functions.Tabular | QLM | ||
| Functions.Tabular | QLF | ||
| Auxiliary.Prod_4 | Prod_4_1 | ||
| Functions.Tabular | QLC | ||
| Functions.Tabular | QLP | ||
| Auxiliary.Gain | Quality_of_Life | ||
| Utilities.Parameter_Change | NR_norm | ||
| Utilities.Parameter_Change | Pol_norm | ||
| Utilities.Parameter_Change | DR_norm |