blockTrendBasedForecast
Extends from Interfaces.PartialConverters.InformationProcessing_SO (Information Processing Block).
Information
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The trend-based forecast makes use of a perceived present condition and a fractional growth rate computed by a →Trend block that follows the model proposed by Sterman [3, pp. 34 - 38].
The perceived present condition (PPC) will be "brought forward" to the actual time using linear extrapolation:
Extrapolated Present Condition = Perceived Present Condition · ( 1 + fractional growth rate · time to perceive present condition)
The actual forecast is then arrived at by using exponential growth and continuous compounding:
forecast = extrapolated present condition · EXP( fractional growth rate · forecast horizon)
See also
Parameters
| Type | Name | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Units.Rate | initialTrend | 0 | Initial trend (fracGrowthRate.initialTrend) |
| Time | fcsth | 1 | Forecast horizon |
| Time | tppc | 1 | Averaging time for perception of current quantity (i.e., the present condition) |
| Time | thrc | 1 | Time horizon for reference condition |
| Time | tpt | 1 | Time to perceive the trend (i.e., there is gradual adaptation to a new trend) |
| Structural Parameters | |||
| Boolean | smoothTrend | false | = true, if the calculated trend is to be smoothed (fracGrowthRate.smoothTrend) |
Connectors
| Type | Name | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interfaces.Connectors.RealInput | u | Current value as basis for trend formulation |
Components
| Type | Name | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| RealOutput | y (from InformationProcessing_SO) | Information output signal |