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The trend-based forecast makes use of a perceived present condition and a fractional growth rate computed by a →Trend block that follows the model proposed by Sterman [3, pp. 34 - 38].
The perceived present condition (PPC) will be "brought forward" to the actual time using linear extrapolation:
Extrapolated Present Condition = Perceived Present Condition · ( 1 + fractional growth rate · time to perceive present condition)
The actual forecast is then arrived at by using exponential growth and continuous compounding:
forecast = extrapolated present condition · EXP( fractional growth rate · forecast horizon)