modelScenario_4

4th Scenario
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Information

This is a further modification of Jay Forrester's WORLD2 model. The death rate is reduced in 1970 to better account for the recent advances in medicine.

References:

  1. Cellier, F.E. (1991), Continuous System Modeling, Springer-Verlag, New York, ISBN: 0-387-97502-0, 755p.
  2. Forrester, J.W. (1971), World Dynamics, Pegasus Communications, 160p.

Simulate the model across 100 years, and plot the simulated and the measured world populations together on a single graph against the calendar years:

Parameters

TypeNameDefaultDescription
RealPopulation_01650000000.0World population in 1900
RealPollution_0200000000.0Pollution in 1900
RealNat_Resources_0900000000000.0Unrecoverable natural resources in 1900
RealCap_Invest_0400000000.0Capital investment in 1900
RealCIAF_00.2Proportion of capital investment in agriculture in 1900
RealBRN0.04Normal birth rate
RealCIAFN0.3CIAF normalization
RealCIAFT15.0CIAF time constant
RealCIDN0.025Normal capital discard
RealCIGN0.05Normal capital generation
RealECIRN1.0Capital normalization
RealFC1.0Food coefficient
RealFN1.0Food normalization
RealLand_Area135000000.0Area of arable land
RealNRI900000000000.0Initial natural resources
RealPOLS3599900000.0Standard pollution
RealPop_dens_norm26.5Normal population density
RealQLS1.0Standard quality of life

Components

TypeNameDefaultDescription
RealPopWorld population
RealPolPollution
RealPol_ratPollution ratio
RealCap_invCapital investment
RealQual_lifeQuality of life
RealNat_resNatural unrecoverable resources
RealNRUNNormal resource utilization
RealPOLNNormal pollution
RealDRNNormal death rate
RealPop_meas
SystemDynamics.Sources.SourceSource1
SystemDynamics.Rates.Rate_1Birth_Rate
SystemDynamics.Levels.LevelPopulation
SystemDynamics.Rates.Rate_1Death_Rate
SystemDynamics.Sources.SinkSink1
SystemDynamics.Sources.SourceSource2
SystemDynamics.Rates.Rate_1Generation
SystemDynamics.Levels.LevelNatural_Resources
SystemDynamics.Rates.Rate_1Depletion
SystemDynamics.Sources.SinkSink2
SystemDynamics.Auxiliary.ConstGen_Const
SystemDynamics.Functions.TabularBRMM
SystemDynamics.Functions.TabularDRMM
SystemDynamics.Auxiliary.GainBR_norm
SystemDynamics.Auxiliary.Prod_5Prod_5_1
SystemDynamics.Auxiliary.Prod_5Prod_5_2
SystemDynamics.Functions.TabularBRFM
SystemDynamics.Functions.TabularBRPM
SystemDynamics.Functions.TabularBRCM
SystemDynamics.Functions.TabularDRCM
SystemDynamics.Functions.TabularDRPM
SystemDynamics.Functions.TabularDRFM
SystemDynamics.Auxiliary.GainCrowd_Rat
SystemDynamics.Auxiliary.Prod_2Prod_2_1
SystemDynamics.Functions.TabularNRMM
SystemDynamics.Sources.SourceSource3
SystemDynamics.Rates.Rate_1CI_Generation
SystemDynamics.Levels.LevelCapital_Investment
SystemDynamics.Rates.Rate_1CI_Discard
SystemDynamics.Sources.SinkSink3
SystemDynamics.Auxiliary.GainCIG_norm
SystemDynamics.Auxiliary.Prod_2Prod_2_2
SystemDynamics.Auxiliary.GainCID_norm
SystemDynamics.Functions.TabularCIM
SystemDynamics.Auxiliary.GainMSL
SystemDynamics.Auxiliary.GainNRFR
SystemDynamics.Auxiliary.GainECIR
SystemDynamics.Auxiliary.Prod_3Prod_3_1
SystemDynamics.Functions.TabularNREM
Modelica.Blocks.Math.DivisionCIR
SystemDynamics.Sources.SourceSource4
SystemDynamics.Rates.Rate_1P_Generation
SystemDynamics.Levels.LevelPollution
SystemDynamics.Rates.Rate_1P_Absorption
SystemDynamics.Sources.SinkSink4
SystemDynamics.Functions.LinearNotCIAF
SystemDynamics.Auxiliary.GainPol_Ratio
SystemDynamics.Functions.TabularFCM
SystemDynamics.Auxiliary.Prod_3Prod_3_2
SystemDynamics.Auxiliary.GainFood_Ratio
SystemDynamics.Sources.SourceSource5
SystemDynamics.Rates.Rate_1CIAFG
SystemDynamics.Levels.LevelCIAF
SystemDynamics.Rates.Rate_1CIAFD
SystemDynamics.Sources.SinkSink5
SystemDynamics.Auxiliary.GainCIAF_D
SystemDynamics.Auxiliary.GainCIAF_G
SystemDynamics.Auxiliary.Prod_2Prod_2_3
Modelica.Blocks.Math.DivisionP_Abs
SystemDynamics.Auxiliary.Prod_2Prod_2_4
SystemDynamics.Functions.TabularPOLCM
SystemDynamics.Functions.TabularPOLAT
SystemDynamics.Functions.TabularCFIFR
SystemDynamics.Functions.TabularFPM
SystemDynamics.Auxiliary.Prod_2Prod_2_5
SystemDynamics.Auxiliary.GainCIRA
SystemDynamics.Functions.TabularFPCI
SystemDynamics.Functions.TabularCIQR
Modelica.Blocks.Math.DivisionQLMF
SystemDynamics.Functions.TabularQLM
SystemDynamics.Functions.TabularQLF
SystemDynamics.Auxiliary.Prod_4Prod_4_1
SystemDynamics.Functions.TabularQLC
SystemDynamics.Functions.TabularQLP
SystemDynamics.Auxiliary.GainQuality_of_Life
SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World2.Utilities.Parameter_ChangeNR_norm
SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World2.Utilities.Parameter_ChangePol_norm
SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World2.Utilities.Parameter_ChangeDR_norm