.SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3.Scenario_3

Information

This is Scenario #3 of the WORLD3 model. This scenario starts out with the same assumptions as Scenario #2. In that scenario, the continued production of industrial goods caused the persistent pollution to accumulate. That pollution led to a deterioration of the fertility of our agricultural lands, which caused a collapse over time.

For this reason, it is postulated here that improved pollution control technology can curbe the amount of pollutants released into the atmosphere by 4% starting in the year 2002. The hope is that such a reduction can be reasonably well accomplished without suffocating the industry in the process. In fact, our government already talk about measures that are considerably more stringent than just a 4% reduction in air pollution, although the already implemented measures have proven ineffective until now. The greenhouse gas emissions are still growing essentially proportional with the industrial production.

References:

  1. Meadows, D.H., D.L. Meadows, J. Randers, and W.W. Behrens III (1972), Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind, Universe Books, New York, 205p.
  2. Meadows, D.L., W.W. Behrens III, D.M., Meadows, R.F. Naill, J. Randers, and E.K.O. Zahn (1974), Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World, Wright-Allen Press, 637p.
  3. Meadows, D.H., D.L. Meadows, and J. Randers (1992), Beyond the Limits, Chelsea Green, 300p.
  4. Meadows, D.H., J. Randers, and D.L. Meadows (2004), Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update, Chelsea Green, 368p.

In order to accomplish this change, you need to modify the table P_PPoll_Tech_Chg_Mlt_POLGFM that models a multiplier to the generation of pollution as a function of available pollution technology:

parameter Real p_ppoll_tech_chg_mlt[:] = {-0.04,-0.04,0,0} "Persistent pollution technology change multiplier";,

and you also you need to reset yet another one of the switching times in the model:

parameter Real t_policy_year(unit="yr") = 2002 "Year of policy change";.

The latter change has lots of consequences, as this policy control parameter appears in 16 different places in the model.

Simulate the model from 1900 until 2100, and display the same variables as in the book Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update at page 211:

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