modelScenario_8
More abundant non-recoverable natural resources, birth control, and stable industrial output
Information
This is Scenario #8 of the WORLD3 model. This scenario starts out with the same assumptions as Scenario #7. Birth control allowed the industrial output to grow a bit faster, but ultimately, it got stopped by the increasing cost of controlling pollution.We now want to control the industrial output. Furthermore, we want to give the capital investment a 25% increased life time.
References:
- Meadows, D.H., D.L. Meadows, J. Randers, and W.W. Behrens III (1972), Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind, Universe Books, New York, 205p.
- Meadows, D.L., W.W. Behrens III, D.M., Meadows, R.F. Naill, J. Randers, and E.K.O. Zahn (1974), Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World, Wright-Allen Press, 637p.
- Meadows, D.H., D.L. Meadows, and J. Randers (1992), Beyond the Limits, Chelsea Green, 300p.
- Meadows, D.H., J. Randers, and D.L. Meadows (2004), Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update, Chelsea Green, 368p.
In order to accomplish this change, you need to reset two of the modify a number of parameters in the model:
parameter Real ind_out_pc_des(unit="dollar/yr") = 350 "Desired annual industrial per capita output";.
parameter Real p_avg_life_agr_inp_2(unit="yr") = 2.5 "Controlled average life of agricultural input";.
parameter Real p_avg_life_ind_cap_2(unit="yr") = 18 "Controlled average life of industrial capital";.
parameter Real p_avg_life_serv_cap_2(unit="yr") = 25 "Controlled average life of service sector capital";.
Finally, we need to reset two more of the switching times in the model:
parameter Real t_ind_equil_time(unit="yr") = 2002 "Year of industrial equilibrium";.
parameter Real t_policy_year(unit="yr") = 2002 "Year of policy change";.
Simulate the model from 1900 until 2100, and display the same variables as in the book Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update at page 243:
Parameters
| Type | Name | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real | agr_mtl_toxic_index | 1 | Agricultural materials toxicity index |
| Real | assim_half_life_1970 | 1.5 | Pollution assimilation half life in 1970 |
| Real | avg_life_land_norm | 1000 | Normal life span of land |
| Real | des_compl_fam_size_norm | 3.8 | Desired normal complete family size |
| Real | des_food_ratio_dfr | 2 | Desired food ratio |
| Real | des_ppoll_index_DPOLX | 1.2 | Desired persistent pollution index |
| Real | des_res_use_rt_DNRUR | 4800000000.0 | Desired resource utilization rate |
| Real | food_short_perc_del | 2 | Food shortage perception delay |
| Real | fr_agr_inp_pers_mtl | 0.001 | Effective fraction of agricultural pollution input |
| Real | frac_res_pers_mtl | 0.02 | Effective fraction of resource utilization on pollution generation |
| Real | hlth_serv_impact_del | 20 | Health service impact delay |
| Real | income_expect_avg_time | 3 | Income expected average time |
| Real | ind_mtl_emiss_fact | 0.1 | Industrial materials emission factor |
| Real | ind_mtl_toxic_index | 10.0 | Industrial materials toxicity index |
| Real | ind_out_pc_des | 350 | Desired annual industrial per capita output |
| Real | ind_out_in_1970 | 790000000000.0 | Industrial output in 1970 |
| Real | inherent_land_fert | 600 | Inherent land fertility |
| Real | labor_force_partic | 0.75 | Percentage of participating labor force |
| Real | labor_util_fr_del_time | 2 | Labor utilization fraction delay time |
| Real | land_fr_harvested | 0.7 | Land fraction harvested |
| Real | life_expect_norm | 28 | Normal life expectancy |
| Real | lifet_perc_del | 20 | Perceived life-time delay |
| Real | max_tot_fert_norm | 12 | Normal maximal total fertility |
| Real | p_avg_life_agr_inp_1 | 2 | Default average life of agricultural input |
| Real | p_avg_life_agr_inp_2 | 2.5 | Controlled average life of agricultural input |
| Real | p_avg_life_ind_cap_1 | 14 | Default average life of industrial capital |
| Real | p_avg_life_ind_cap_2 | 18 | Controlled average life of industrial capital |
| Real | p_avg_life_serv_cap_1 | 20 | Default average life of service sector capital |
| Real | p_avg_life_serv_cap_2 | 25 | Controlled average life of service sector capital |
| Real | p_fioa_cons_const_1 | 0.43 | Default fraction of industrial output allocated to consumption |
| Real | p_fioa_cons_const_2 | 0.43 | Controlled fraction of industrial output allocated to consumption |
| Real | p_ind_cap_out_ratio_1 | 3 | Default industrial capital output ratio |
| Real | p_land_yield_fact_1 | 1 | Default land yield factor |
| Real | p_nr_res_use_fact_1 | 1 | Default non-recoverable resource utilization factor |
| Real | p_ppoll_gen_fact_1 | 1 | Default persistent pollution generation factor |
| Real | p_serv_cap_out_ratio_1 | 1.0 | Default fraction of service sector output ratio |
| Real | p_serv_cap_out_ratio_2 | 1.0 | Controlled fraction of service sector output ratio |
| Real | pot_arable_land_tot | 3200000000.0 | Total potential arable land |
| Real | ppoll_in_1970 | 136000000.0 | Persistent pollution in 1970 |
| Real | ppoll_trans_del | 20 | Persistent pollution transmission delay |
| Real | processing_loss | 0.1 | Processing loss |
| Real | reproductive_lifetime | 30.0 | Reproductive life time |
| Real | social_adj_del | 20 | Social adjustment delay |
| Real | social_discount | 0.07 | Social discount |
| Real | subsist_food_pc | 230 | Available per capita food |
| Real | tech_dev_del_TDD | 20 | Technology development time |
| Real | urb_ind_land_dev_time | 10 | Urban and industrial land development time |
| Real | t_air_poll_time | 4000 | Air pollution change time |
| Real | t_fcaor_time | 2002 | Year of capital allocation to resource use efficiency |
| Real | t_fert_cont_eff_time | 2002 | Year of continued fertility change |
| Real | t_ind_equil_time | 2002 | Year of industrial equilibrium |
| Real | t_land_life_time | 4000 | Land life time |
| Real | t_policy_year | 2002 | Year of policy change |
| Real | t_pop_equil_time | 4000 | Population equilibrium time |
| Real | t_zero_pop_grow_time | 2002 | Time to zero population growth |
| Real[:] | p_fr_cap_al_obt_res_2 | {1, 0.1, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05} | Non-renewable resource fraction remaining |
| Real[:] | p_ppoll_tech_chg_mlt | {0, 0, 0, 0} | Persistent pollution technology change multiplier |
| Real[:] | p_res_tech_chg_mlt | {0, 0, 0, 0} | Resource technology change multiplier |
| Real[:] | p_yield_tech_chg_mlt | {0, 0, 0, 0} | Yield technology change multiplier |
| Real | agr_inp_init | 5000000000.0 | Initial agricultural input |
| Real | arable_land_init | 900000000.0 | Initial arable land |
| Real | industrial_capital_init | 210000000000.0 | Initial industrial investment |
| Real | labor_util_fr_del_init | 1 | Initial delayed labor utilization fraction |
| Real | land_fertility_init | 600 | Initial industrial investment |
| Real | nr_resources_init | 2000000000000.0 | Initial available non-recoverable resources |
| Real | perc_food_ratio_init | 1 | Initial perceived food ratio |
| Real | pers_pollution_init | 25000000.0 | Initial persistent pollution |
| Real | pop1_init | 650000000.0 | Initial population 14 years and younger |
| Real | pop2_init | 700000000.0 | Initial population 15 to 44 years old |
| Real | pop3_init | 190000000.0 | Initial population 45 to 64 years old |
| Real | pop4_init | 60000000.0 | Initial population 65 years and older |
| Real | pot_arable_land_init | 2300000000.0 | Initial potential arable land |
| Real | ppoll_tech_init | 1 | Initial persistent pollution technology change factor |
| Real | res_tech_init | 1 | Initial non-recoverable resource technology factor |
| Real | service_capital_init | 144000000000.0 | Initial service sector investment |
| Real | urban_ind_land_init | 8200000.0 | Initial urban and industrial land |
| Real | yield_tech_init | 1 | Initial yield technology factor |
Components
| Type | Name | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real | population | Total human world population | |
| Real | food | Total annually produced food | |
| Real | industrial_output | Total annual world industrial output | |
| Real | ppoll_index | Persistent pollution index | |
| Real | nr_resources | Remaining non-recoverable natural resources | |
| Real | fioa_ind | Fraction of industrial output allocated to industrial/military complex | |
| Real | s_fioa_agr | Fraction of industrial output allocated to food production | |
| Real | s_fioa_cons | Fraction of industrial output allocated to consumption | |
| Real | s_fioa_serv | Fraction of industrial output allocated to service sector | |
| Real | s_fr_cap_al_obt_res | Fraction of capital allocated to resource use efficiency | |
| Real | life_expectancy | Life expectancy | |
| Real | food_pc | Total annual food per person | |
| Real | serv_out_pc | Total annual services per person | |
| Real | ind_out_pc | Total annual consumer goods per person | |
| Real | human_ecological_footprint | Human ecological footprint | |
| Real | human_welfare_index | Human welfare index | |
| SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3.Population_Dynamics | Population_Dynamics1 | Population dynamics | |
| SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3.Pollution_Dynamics | Pollution_Dynamics1 | Persistent pollution generation | |
| SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3.Arable_Land_Dynamics | Arable_Land_Dynamics1 | Arable land dynamics | |
| SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3.Food_Production | Food_Production1 | Food production | |
| SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3.Human_Ecological_Footprint | Human_Ecological_Footprint1 | Human ecological footprint | |
| SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3.Human_Fertility | Human_Fertility1 | Human fertility | |
| SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3.Human_Welfare_Index | Human_Welfare_Index1 | Human welfare index | |
| SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3.Industrial_Investment | Industrial_Investment1 | Industrial investment | |
| SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3.Labor_Utilization | Labor_Utilization1 | Labor utilization | |
| SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3.Land_Fertility | Land_Fertility1 | Land fertility | |
| SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3.Life_Expectancy | Life_Expectancy1 | Life expectancy | |
| SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3.NR_Resource_Utilization | NR_Resource_Utilization1 | Non-recoverable natural resource utilization | |
| SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3.Service_Sector_Investment | Service_Sector_Investment1 | Service sector investment |