.SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3.Scenario_8

Information

This is Scenario #8 of the WORLD3 model. This scenario starts out with the same assumptions as Scenario #7. Birth control allowed the industrial output to grow a bit faster, but ultimately, it got stopped by the increasing cost of controlling pollution.

We now want to control the industrial output. Furthermore, we want to give the capital investment a 25% increased life time.

References:

  1. Meadows, D.H., D.L. Meadows, J. Randers, and W.W. Behrens III (1972), Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind, Universe Books, New York, 205p.
  2. Meadows, D.L., W.W. Behrens III, D.M., Meadows, R.F. Naill, J. Randers, and E.K.O. Zahn (1974), Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World, Wright-Allen Press, 637p.
  3. Meadows, D.H., D.L. Meadows, and J. Randers (1992), Beyond the Limits, Chelsea Green, 300p.
  4. Meadows, D.H., J. Randers, and D.L. Meadows (2004), Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update, Chelsea Green, 368p.

In order to accomplish this change, you need to reset two of the modify a number of parameters in the model:

parameter Real ind_out_pc_des(unit="dollar/yr") = 350 "Desired annual industrial per capita output";.

parameter Real p_avg_life_agr_inp_2(unit="yr") = 2.5 "Controlled average life of agricultural input";.

parameter Real p_avg_life_ind_cap_2(unit="yr") = 18 "Controlled average life of industrial capital";.

parameter Real p_avg_life_serv_cap_2(unit="yr") = 25 "Controlled average life of service sector capital";.

Finally, we need to reset two more of the switching times in the model:

parameter Real t_ind_equil_time(unit="yr") = 2002 "Year of industrial equilibrium";.

parameter Real t_policy_year(unit="yr") = 2002 "Year of policy change";.

Simulate the model from 1900 until 2100, and display the same variables as in the book Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update at page 243:

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